In the last post, I shared a one-year projection for Napa Merlot prices. The model only worked when a variable was created to measure the effect of the movie Sideways on the price of Merlot. Years ago, a study was done to measure the effect that the movie had on retail Merlot prices. I thought I would take a crack at determining how much money that movie has cost Merlot farmers. This is not meant to be any sort of definitive study of the issue. I have no interns and this
Today’s grape price projection is Napa Merlot. To me, it’s a grape that is playing tug-of-war with itself, in a statistical sense. On the one hand, it works as a blending grape for Napa Cabernet and Meritage. On the other hand, it works as a varietally-bottled wine. On the one hand, it is a Napa grape and therefore the market is strong. On the other hand, an off-hand, drunken comment from a fictional character played by Paul Giamatti has destroyed the market for Merlot.
The last post was wholly dedicated to Napa Cabernet Sauvignon and was quite bullish for the future. I do want to reiterate that those are very basic projections and I would strongly recommend you have VFA customize projections for you, instead of using those. At the very least, use the lower limits of probability that I provided. Even in today's market, Napa cabernet is already very expensive. One of the strategies used for controlling Napa cabernet costs is to blend in c
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