Though I’m waiting for the final crush report numbers to assess my projections’ accuracy, I wanted to go back to one projection, in particular. District 3 (Sonomarin) Chardonnay was a bit of a question for me, though not as enigmatic as Anderson Valley Pinot and Lake County Cab. In the case of Sonomarin Chard I got it right, predicting a price of $1998.32. The preliminary numbers show an average price of $1987.15, for difference of $11.17, meaning I was about half a percen
I made a tool on Excel that allows the user to rapidly retrieve acreage data by inputting the variety and region. As readers of this blog know, I advocate greater use of basic data in this industry and I hope this helps. I made this tool with three purposes in mind for users: First, to create a quicker way to look up acreage data than flipping through a book or scrolling through spreadsheets. Second, to make it possible to carry the whole acreage report on a tablet and easi
So, the Preliminary Crush Report came out today and I’ve been comparing it to my predictions. Overall, I’ve been really on point for work done for clients, with most predictions running between 0.5% to 2.5% off-target. At some point, I will put up a score sheet of my public predictions on this blog. Spoiler alert: They’re pretty good, but there are two forecasts that were not. And one was off by a lot. Of course, I’ve known that the public ones, being a bit less research
Projections vs. Forecasts On this blog, I regularly use the terms “projection” and “forecast.” Unfortunately, I use them rather interchangeably. There is an important difference between them and I’ll explain it in this blog post, with the hope that I better sear the information into my own grey matter. A forecast is the best estimation of the actual future events that will occur. I forecast winegrape prices. I develop indices that combine the most important influences on
Product Review: Vintel Vintel is a piece of software made by a French company called ITK that predicts vine water potential, “by mapping soil and plant characteristics to prevailing weather and irrigation practices.” I gave it a spin at Unified and it seemed surprisingly simple to use. It was easy to enter the various data points necessary to perform such a prediction and the mapping software seemed quite easy to use, too. The data outputs are clean, detailed and easy to in
So, we’ve got a week until the crush report comes out and I am going to try to do a light blog post every day or two until then. The first few are about data-related products I saw at Unified Wine and Grape Symposium. One of the coolest products I saw was the Wines & Vines Distributor Database. In the past, I focused more on discrete competitive and market analysis for clients. Basically, if a client wanted to evaluate the potential for strategic development, make a grab f
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