Cognitive Biases in The Wine Industry: Part 1, The Fundamental Attribution Error
In my line of work there is, of course, an enormous emphasis on data, facts, evidence and logic. These are the fundamentals of making the best business decisions. But we, as humans, are wired to skew, ignore or react to these inputs in ways that keep us from making optimal decisions. We’re biologically wired to do so, since we evolved in a world where every decision had to be made quickly and by instinct. We always had to “go with our gut.” Now that we are running busine
Vineyard Planting Decision-Making Tool
On the face of it, someone may think that choosing what varietal(s) to plant a vineyard to is easy: just pick the one that will make the most money and put everything down to that. But that's not the whole story. I can promise you that the many growers who did that with Merlot for a decade regretted it when over-planting and Sideways ruined them. As with any investment, growers should diversify their plantings to hedge against such events. Furthermore, especially if you ar
Opinions on Lew Perdue and the Wine Institute
So, this is one of those rare posts of mine that is not based on solid facts and data. That does not mean that it's not right, just that I'm not citing objective data. It's pure opinion. Hopefully, that means that it will be less befuddling and soporific than my typical post. I'm glad to see that Lew is needling the Institute. The Institute does a lot for us and is basically the only game in town when it comes to lobbying for wineries. We need them to talk to politicians
Are Grape Prices Rising Too Fast? By the Numbers
The other day I posted to this blog claiming that, though grape prices have been rising faster than bottle prices in recent years, they are just making up for lost ground. Ergo, I concluded the rise in grape prices over the past 4 years has been sustainable. This is contrary to the concerns voiced by people in this industry who are much more experienced and successful than I, including David Freed, Rob McMillan and anyone whose name or employer is Ciatti. I wanted to resear
