Grading My 2014 Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon Acreage Forecast
In 2015, I presented at the Vineyard Economics Seminar. At that point, we only had acreage data through 2014. The presentation was made publicly available. At that time, I predicted that, for the next several years, Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon acreage would increase by 1.25% annualized (per USDA-NASS Crush Report numbers). I decided to check in on that prediction this year. In 2014, acreage was 19,665. A 1.25% compounded annual growth rate would mean 20,667 acres in 2
Interactive Chart of the Last 27 Years of Napa Cabernet Prices by Percentile
So, sometimes I'm deep into a client project and I hit a wall. My work quality drops, my productivity falls. In some cases, I just do some jumping jacks or go into the house to change that light bulb that went out a couple days ago - and then get back to work. But sometimes I feel the need to keep my mind focused on the same type of work - I just need a break from the subject matter at hand. So I made a pretty cool interactive chart that allows you to track the distributio
The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession
Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett
The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 1: Revenge of the Grape Market Cycle
Lately, there has been a lot of talk about how we’re due to see a downturn in the wine market. As those of you who have gotten a glass of wine with me anytime since 2012 probably know, I’ve been predicting a peak in wine grape prices in 2018. Over the past 6 years, I’ve refined and softened that prediction. We have not seen over-planting on the same scale as we have in past grape market cycles. In 2017, I changed my tune a bit to state that (a) the peak will occur in 2018/
Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon by Price Level
In a previous post, I put up a new Grape Data Tool tutorial video explaining how to use the tool to evaluate Cabernet Sauvignon prices by percentile. The tutorial focused on Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma and Napa Counties. In previous blog posts, I shared some findings on Cabernet Sauvignon from Lake, Mendocino and Sonoma Counties. This post will look at the economics of District 4 (Napa County) Cabernet Sauvignon pricing by percentile level. Sorry, by the way, to anyone who has
Using the Grape Data Tool to Evaluate the Dynamics of the North Coast's Highest-Priced Grapes, P
In my continuing push to get people to use my free Grape Data Tool, I've made another tutorial video. This one shows how to use the AllPercentile macro to explore percentile pricing. Specifically, it focuses on how the top several percent of Cabernet Sauvignon grapes sold in each Pricing District relate to the average Cabernet Sauvignon price for the region. It also includes a bit of education on how percentile pricing works and how it can relate to grape purchase contract
Half of all Napa vineyards may be Cabernet Sauvignon by 2025.
Since 1994, Cabernet Sauvignon's share of Napa vineyard land has increased by roughly 50%. Other red Bordelais varieties have, as a category, seen a very similar shift, as you can see in the chart below. I know it's hard to see - Wix's blog setup is sub-par - so you'll have to zoom in to read the chart or try right-clicking to download it. If you'd like the original, just let me know. Over the past five years or so, the increase in vine-share dedicated to red Bordelais var
Maybe Napa Cabernet Sauvignon Prices Aren't That High!
My two favorite people from Uppsala are both named David. The first is David the Gnome and the second is David Morrison at The Wine Gourd blog. I’ll refrain from extolling the virtues of David the Gnome for now and focus on David Morrison. Frankly, he does some of the best quantitative analysis of any wine blogger out there. If you would like to understand the economics of the wine industry, his blog is a must-read. His latest post, “Napa cabernet grapes are greatly over-
Will Napa re-plant to varieties other than Cabernet Sauvignon?
Tom Wark recently expressed some hope in his Fermentation Blog that Napa growers who, according to a Wines & Vines article, are going to be doing a lot of replanting in 2017, will replant their vineyards to more varietally diverse configurations. I hope so - I find Napa Cabernet Sauvignon to be getting to be really boring and I love to taste the minor varieties. But the pessimist in me does not think this will happen. Since 1994, tota, bearingl wine grape acreage in Napa ha
Inflation-Adjusted Napa Cabernet Sauvignon Prices
As part of my continuing project to make available to the industry charts from different projects I've worked on, here is a chart of Napa Cabernet Sauvignon pices, from Table 6 of the crush report, going back to 1991, in 2014 dollars. The chart shows the middle 50% of price outcomes with a black background to highlight how inexorable and aggressive the price rise has been. It really is amazing when you keep in mind that these numbers are adjusted for inflation! Feel free to
