Which Average to Use? The Cheapest Trick in Grape Price Negotiations.
I recently had the great honor of presenting to the California Association of Wine Growers at their annual summer seminar. My topic was a somewhat wide ranging discussion of how grape growers could use the Crush Report and Acreage Report to better their business decisions, negotiations and strategy. One topic I presented was the difference between median prices and mean/average prices. Grape buyers and sellers sometimes like to argue over whether they should index or price
Is El Dorado the Secret Land of Non-Existent Vineyard Labor Issues?
On March 20th, I’ll be speaking to the El Dorado Wine Grape Growers’ Association. They’re a great group – they always have a lot of great questions and they're great at sharing their knowledge with each other and me. They also put me up in the Cary House, a nice, old-timey hotel in downtown Placerville, which might be the most underrated town in California. And it's a real place, unlike El Dorado's mythical namesake. Map to a very different El Dorado: My presentation is go
Interactive Chart of the Last 27 Years of District 3 Pinot Noir Prices, by Percentile
This creates an easy way to see how District 3 Pinot Noir prices have evolved, by percentile, over time, in both nominal and inflation-adjusted dollars. Below is a screenshot, but the power in the file is that you can scroll through all the years from 1991-2017, using a simple scroll bar. Go to the Grape Data Tutorial page to download this and similar charts. Feel free to use and disseminate it, but please leave my contact info on it. #grapeprices #grapedatatool #percentile
Lake County Wine Grape Price for 2018
So, this post may be coming a bit late to be of much help, but maybe it will be useful to someone. This stems from some casual research I was doing. I've been hoping for a contract to forecast Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon. It's such a huge question going forward, as to what extent Napa Cab will follow a steady, upward trajectory and to what extent it is still vulnerable to cyclical effects and macroeconomic headwinds. To really look at an issue like that would take, in m
Four-Year Forecast of Oregon Wine Grape Prices
I am continually creating forecasts for clients: land prices, expenses, acreage numbers, labor rates, revenue and, especially, grape prices. But those forecasts can be narrowly focused. For instance, a client may want a forecast for the 80th percentile price for Pinot Noir in Sonoma County. That means I spend a great deal of time looking at specific segments of the West Coast wine grape market. As I have discussed before, we humans have a huge design flaw: our tendency to
Three-Year Forecast of Washington Wine Grape Prices
I am continually creating forecasts for clients: land prices, expenses, acreage numbers, labor rates, revenue and, especially, grape prices. But those forecasts can be narrowly focused. For instance, a client may want a forecast for the 80th percentile price for Pinot Noir in Sonoma County. That means I spend a great deal of time looking at specific segments of the West Coast wine grape market. As I have discussed before, we humans have a huge design flaw: our tendency to
Some Big Picture Thoughts on Where Our Industry is Heading in the Next Few Years
Today, I'm waiting on a couple pieces of projects, giving me some "down time" to work on some of the continual analysis I do of the wine grape market. I just got inspired to share some insights and methods with my readers. This based off my question to myself "Where is the wine industry is going over the next few years?" Now, before I begin, a couple of caveats: I focus largely on coastal regions, especially the North Coast - keep that in mind when you interpret this blog
Lake County Cabernet Sauvignon by Price Level
A little bit ago, I posted a new Grape Data Tool tutorial video that showed how to use the tool to evaluate Cabernet Sauvignon in Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma and Napa Counties by price level. In a previous blog post, I posted some findings on Mendocino County Cabernet Sauvignon. I promised to post some of the findings on the other three counties soon after. I realized that I over-booked some client projects, so I've been slow on getting to this, but today I'll examine high-end
Mendocino County Cabernet Sauvignon by Price Level
Earlier I posted a Grape Data Tool tutorial video that showed how to use the tool to evaluate Cabernet Sauvignon in Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma and Napa Counties by price level. Over the next week or so, I will post my findings from exploring that topic. Today’s post will focus on Mendocino County Cabernet Sauvignon. In 2017, roughly 10% of all Mendocino County sold for $2,058.34 cents per ton. This is more than were sold at any other price level. This was the 2016 average pr
Using the Grape Data Tool to Evaluate the Dynamics of the North Coast's Highest-Priced Grapes, P
In my continuing push to get people to use my free Grape Data Tool, I've made another tutorial video. This one shows how to use the AllPercentile macro to explore percentile pricing. Specifically, it focuses on how the top several percent of Cabernet Sauvignon grapes sold in each Pricing District relate to the average Cabernet Sauvignon price for the region. It also includes a bit of education on how percentile pricing works and how it can relate to grape purchase contract
