VFA's Blog

May 27, 2019

In 2015, I presented at the Vineyard Economics Seminar.  At that point, we only had acreage data through 2014.  The presentation was made publicly available.  At that time, I predicted that, for the next several years, Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon acreage would incre...

April 23, 2019

So, I have posted many forecasts and scored many forecasts on this blog.  But it may be difficult for you to determine if my forecasts are good.  For one, humans are bad at judging forecasts, because we rarely keep records. 

For instance, you may hear someone...

April 23, 2019

Work is getting to be really busy.  I've realized that, though I really focus on forecasting, this industry has a lot of need for more customized or generalized financial help.  And I build really great financials.  So, I've been lucky to get to do that for a lot of yo...

April 17, 2019

Update (4:43p, 4/18/19):  The Lake County Winegrowers Association e-mailed me with some more information:

"Thanks to a near-perfect growing season in 2018, the crop was big everywhere in California, including in Lake County. 2018 prices varied slightly in comparison to...

April 16, 2019

I've been looking for new regions to sell my services in.  I love Sonoma and Napa, but I enjoy getting clients from other regions.  Last year, I made public forecasts for Washington, Oregon and Lake County grape prices.  With the Crush Report released, I'm startin...

January 3, 2019

So, this post may be coming a bit late to be of much help, but maybe it will be useful to someone.  This stems from some casual research I was doing.  I've been hoping for a contract to forecast Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon.  It's such a huge question going forward,...

October 11, 2018

I am continually creating forecasts for clients: land prices, expenses, acreage numbers, labor rates, revenue and, especially, grape prices.  But those forecasts can be narrowly focused.  For instance, a client may want a forecast for the 80th percentile price for Pino...

May 10, 2017

Recently, I've had the chance to focus a bit on the El Dorado AVA.  I did work for a client there and also put together a presentation for the El Dorado Wine Growers Association.  Click here to get the report I put together for the growers. In the process, I notic...

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