VFA's Blog

February 7, 2019

This month’s issue of Wine Business Monthly has a lot of useful information in it.  A lot of talk of headwinds up ahead for the wine industry, along with some justifiable “yes, but stay calm”-type of advice.  For regular readers of this blog, you know that I've been wo...

December 6, 2018

Well, I’ve thrown a lot out at you in this series of blog posts.  The grape market cycle might be grinding to a halt!  A recession is coming!  The labor market is tight and poses a risk to future profitability!  That’s a lot of doom and gloom.   But now I’m ready to s...

October 24, 2018

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about how we’re due to see a downturn in the wine market.  As those of you who have gotten a glass of wine with me anytime since 2012 probably know, I’ve been predicting a peak in wine grape prices in 2018. 

Over the past 6 year...

July 10, 2018

Today, I'm waiting on a couple pieces of projects, giving me some "down time" to work on some of the continual analysis I do of the wine grape market.  I just got inspired to share some insights and methods with my readers.  This based off my question to myself "Where...

July 10, 2017

My two favorite people from Uppsala are both named David.  The first is David the Gnome and the second is David Morrison at The Wine Gourd blog.  I’ll refrain from extolling the virtues of David the Gnome for now and focus on David Morrison.  Frankly, he does some of t...

May 15, 2017

Historically, our industry has been cyclical. Prices rise, we start planting.  Then the new vines start producing. Prices fall, we stop planting. Consumer demand continues to grow, while vineyards age and yields fall and then prices rise. Rinse.  Repeat....

September 14, 2016

Are grape prices too high?  I have heard many producers claiming that they are.  Vineyard guys tend to think they aren't.  In the end, the answer is, of course, "depends."  Depends on where you are and what you're growing.  But we can take a broad-market look at this i...

April 7, 2015

The other day I posted to this blog claiming that, though grape prices have been rising faster than bottle prices in recent years, they are just making up for lost ground. Ergo, I concluded the rise in grape prices over the past 4 years has been sustainable.  This is c...

February 25, 2015

Though I’m waiting for the final crush report numbers to assess my projections’ accuracy, I wanted to go back to one projection, in particular.  District 3 (Sonomarin) Chardonnay was a bit of a question for me, though not as enigmatic as Anderson Valley Pinot and Lake...

June 30, 2014

In the last post, we looked at the changing dynamics of modelling county-wide averages for Napa cab prices by year.  My suggested method for dealing with the uncertain and changing nature of predicting cab prices was to use a combination of scenario and sensitivity ana...

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