VFA's Blog

April 17, 2019

Update (4:43p, 4/18/19):  The Lake County Winegrowers Association e-mailed me with some more information:

"Thanks to a near-perfect growing season in 2018, the crop was big everywhere in California, including in Lake County. 2018 prices varied slightly in comparison to...

January 3, 2019

So, this post may be coming a bit late to be of much help, but maybe it will be useful to someone.  This stems from some casual research I was doing.  I've been hoping for a contract to forecast Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon.  It's such a huge question going forward,...

November 13, 2018

Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle.  I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out.  Unfortunately, both of my...

October 24, 2018

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about how we’re due to see a downturn in the wine market.  As those of you who have gotten a glass of wine with me anytime since 2012 probably know, I’ve been predicting a peak in wine grape prices in 2018. 

Over the past 6 year...

June 7, 2018

A little bit ago, I posted a new Grape Data Tool tutorial video that showed how to use the tool to evaluate Cabernet Sauvignon in Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma and Napa Counties by price level.  In a previous blog post, I posted some findings on Mendocino County Cabernet Sau...

October 25, 2016

In August, I had predicted a price of $1300 per ton for Lake County Sauvignon Blanc for 2016.  Single-year forecasts are the riskiest forecasts I make.  The reason for this is that it typically pits purely quantitative methods against expert knowledge.  The case of 201...

September 15, 2016

So, as I have mentioned before, my worst forecast ever was a massive failure to predict the 16% jump in price for Lake County Cabernet Sauvignon between 2013 and 2014.  I'm still working on stronger and stronger models for Lake County - and, for that matter, everywhere...

March 17, 2015

District 2 Cabernet Sauvignon Update

 

Lake County Cabernet Sauvignon saw an enormous price increase of about 17% this past year, while yields and Brix levels held steady.  With very little opportunity to increase vineyard acreage in Napa, many are turning to Lake County...

July 16, 2014

The last post was wholly dedicated to Napa Cabernet Sauvignon and was quite bullish for the future.  I do want to reiterate that those are very basic projections and I would strongly recommend you have VFA customize projections for you, instead of using those.  At the...

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