VFA's Blog

January 4, 2019

So, sometimes I'm deep into a client project and I hit a wall.  My work quality drops, my productivity falls.  In some cases, I just do some jumping jacks or go into the house to change that light bulb that went out a couple days ago - and then get back to work.  But s...

July 24, 2015

As part of my continuing project to make available to the industry charts from different projects I've worked on, here is a chart of Napa Cabernet Sauvignon pices, from Table 6 of the crush report, going back to 1991, in 2014 dollars. The chart shows the middle 50% of...

July 14, 2015

In May I presented at the Vineyard Economics Seminar.  One topic I focused on was the paradox of the continuing concentration on Cabernet Sauvignon in Napa.  The graph below shows the total percentage of Napa acreage that is Cabernet Sauvignon in purple.  Over the past...

July 21, 2014

Today’s grape price projection is Napa Merlot.  To me, it’s a grape that is playing tug-of-war with itself, in a statistical sense.  On the one hand, it works as a blending grape for Napa Cabernet and Meritage.  On the other hand, it works as a varietally-bottled wine....

June 30, 2014

In the last post, we looked at the changing dynamics of modelling county-wide averages for Napa cab prices by year.  My suggested method for dealing with the uncertain and changing nature of predicting cab prices was to use a combination of scenario and sensitivity ana...

June 10, 2014

So, my website host is having technical difficulties with blogs that contain multiple images.  So, I've had to build out a new page for this blog.  Just click here to read it.

May 27, 2014

Cabernet Sauvignon from Napa is the market leader in grape prices and that is not going to change anytime soon.  In fact, it will not surprise many of my readers to hear that prices are almost certainly going up.  But by how much?



My Projections


I use my own prop...

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