VFA's Blog

November 13, 2018

Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle.  I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out.  Unfortunately, both of my...

July 10, 2017

My two favorite people from Uppsala are both named David.  The first is David the Gnome and the second is David Morrison at The Wine Gourd blog.  I’ll refrain from extolling the virtues of David the Gnome for now and focus on David Morrison.  Frankly, he does some of t...

July 24, 2015

As part of my continuing project to make available to the industry charts from different projects I've worked on, here is a chart of Napa Cabernet Sauvignon pices, from Table 6 of the crush report, going back to 1991, in 2014 dollars. The chart shows the middle 50% of...

July 14, 2015

In May I presented at the Vineyard Economics Seminar.  One topic I focused on was the paradox of the continuing concentration on Cabernet Sauvignon in Napa.  The graph below shows the total percentage of Napa acreage that is Cabernet Sauvignon in purple.  Over the past...

July 21, 2014

Today’s grape price projection is Napa Merlot.  To me, it’s a grape that is playing tug-of-war with itself, in a statistical sense.  On the one hand, it works as a blending grape for Napa Cabernet and Meritage.  On the other hand, it works as a varietally-bottled wine....

June 30, 2014

In the last post, we looked at the changing dynamics of modelling county-wide averages for Napa cab prices by year.  My suggested method for dealing with the uncertain and changing nature of predicting cab prices was to use a combination of scenario and sensitivity ana...

June 24, 2014

Here is the previous post in a normal in-blog setting (some issues with graphics due to my host having some troubles with multimedia posts.)

 

I was recently talking with a colleague about where grape prices are going and he expressed his belief that some winegrapes’ pri...

June 10, 2014

So, my website host is having technical difficulties with blogs that contain multiple images.  So, I've had to build out a new page for this blog.  Just click here to read it.

May 27, 2014

Cabernet Sauvignon from Napa is the market leader in grape prices and that is not going to change anytime soon.  In fact, it will not surprise many of my readers to hear that prices are almost certainly going up.  But by how much?

 

 

My Projections

 

I use my own prop...

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