VFA's Blog

March 22, 2019

In my blog post The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession, I included a probability distribution of when I think the next recession is coming:

■There is a 95% chance that we'll see a recession within the next 3 years;

■25% chance in 2019;


February 7, 2019

This month’s issue of Wine Business Monthly has a lot of useful information in it.  A lot of talk of headwinds up ahead for the wine industry, along with some justifiable “yes, but stay calm”-type of advice.  For regular readers of this blog, you know that I've been wo...

December 6, 2018

Well, I’ve thrown a lot out at you in this series of blog posts.  The grape market cycle might be grinding to a halt!  A recession is coming!  The labor market is tight and poses a risk to future profitability!  That’s a lot of doom and gloom.   But now I’m ready to s...

November 13, 2018

Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle.  I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out.  Unfortunately, both of my...

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