Sonoma County Chardonnay Prices

April 23, 2019

Work is getting to be really busy.  I've realized that, though I really focus on forecasting, this industry has a lot of need for more customized or generalized financial help.  And I build really great financials.  So, I've been lucky to get to do that for a lot of young, local businesses lately.  Plus, there are always AVA valuations rolling in nowadays.  And then there's cannabis/hemp/marijuana.  A lot of work from there.  I mention all of that as an excuse for why I haven't been posting more in response to the crush report and why I haven't released a new Grape Data Tool.  

 

But, here is another review of my past, public forecasts.  In February of last year, I posted a forecast of District 3 Chardonnay prices.  It was a big and complicated forecast, but I'll cut to the chase.  I predicted a 2017 price of $2,227.07 and the actual price was $2,335.36.  That's an error of 4.64%.

 

But you knew that already.  How did my two-year-out forecast do?  I predicted a price of $2,291.39 for 2018.  This was not an update.  This was my forecast prior to the release of the 2017 data.  The actual price was $2,367.  That's an error of 3.19%.  Not bad.  For a two-year-out forecast, in fact, that's a satisfying result for me.

 

Remember that this was a 10 year forecast.  Hopefully, you won't wait to see how it all turns out before you reach out.

 

 

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