Work is getting to be really busy. I've realized that, though I really focus on forecasting, this industry has a lot of need for more customized or generalized financial help. And I build really great financials. So, I've been lucky to get to do that for a lot of young, local businesses lately. Plus, there are always AVA valuations rolling in nowadays. And then there's cannabis/hemp/marijuana. A lot of work from there. I mention all of that as an excuse for why I haven't been posting more in response to the crush report and why I haven't released a new Grape Data Tool.
But, here is another review of my past, public forecasts. In February of last year, I posted a forecast of District 3 Chardonnay prices. It was a big and complicated forecast, but I'll cut to the chase. I predicted a 2017 price of $2,227.07 and the actual price was $2,335.36. That's an error of 4.64%.
But you knew that already. How did my two-year-out forecast do? I predicted a price of $2,291.39 for 2018. This was not an update. This was my forecast prior to the release of the 2017 data. The actual price was $2,367. That's an error of 3.19%. Not bad. For a two-year-out forecast, in fact, that's a satisfying result for me.
Remember that this was a 10 year forecast. Hopefully, you won't wait to see how it all turns out before you reach out.