Expert Judgment vs. Statistical Forecasting: Lake County Sauvignon Blanc Update
In August, I had predicted a price of $1300 per ton for Lake County Sauvignon Blanc for 2016. Single-year forecasts are the riskiest forecasts I make. The reason for this is that it typically pits purely quantitative methods against expert knowledge. The case of 2016 Lake County Sauvignon Blanc is a great case in point. For this blog, I put out purely statistical, single-year forecasts. That is, I use only historical data to forecast a price. Someone out in the field, wi
