The recently-released Acreage Report indicates a 20% increase in non-bearing acreage over last year. That is possibly an enormous jump in supply. But it isn't unexpected. Assuming that acreage is reported in its second leaf, it was planted in 2017. Anyone planting in 2017 had seen prices rise an average of over 3.5% since the start of the Great Recession in 2007. That's a significant outpacing of inflation. For coastal regions, the numbers were even more impressive. It'
So, I have posted many forecasts and scored many forecasts on this blog. But it may be difficult for you to determine if my forecasts are good. For one, humans are bad at judging forecasts, because we rarely keep records. For instance, you may hear someone claim that he or his friend is really successful at playing scratch-off tickets. With the exception of those few people who luck into a major jackpot, it is a mathematical near-impossibility that a regular scratch-off pl
Work is getting to be really busy. I've realized that, though I really focus on forecasting, this industry has a lot of need for more customized or generalized financial help. And I build really great financials. So, I've been lucky to get to do that for a lot of young, local businesses lately. Plus, there are always AVA valuations rolling in nowadays. And then there's cannabis/hemp/marijuana. A lot of work from there. I mention all of that as an excuse for why I haven
Update (4:43p, 4/18/19): The Lake County Winegrowers Association e-mailed me with some more information: "Thanks to a near-perfect growing season in 2018, the crop was big everywhere in California, including in Lake County. 2018 prices varied slightly in comparison to the previous years but considering the extent of the fire, the prices recorded in the grape crush report reflect both a commitment to quality from the growers and a good collaboration between growers and winery
I've been looking for new regions to sell my services in. I love Sonoma and Napa, but I enjoy getting clients from other regions. Last year, I made public forecasts for Washington, Oregon and Lake County grape prices. With the Crush Report released, I'm starting to grade them. I have arbitrarily started off with Washington (it's the leftmost tab in my tracking spreadsheet.) Ironically, Washington doesn't report its prices in the Crush Report (they have their own report).
So, the Crush Report dropped on April 10th, as expected in my last update on the matter. Usually I'm on top of that, as soon as it happens. Reading through it; bothering the nice folks at USDA-NASS about any suspected errors or oddities. In fact, I plan my whole work calendar around it. This year, though, the government shutdown delayed release to a period of time that I was abroad. So, now I'm still in the middle of client projects. So, I'm cutting out my typical bloggi
Stay tuned to VFA's blog to follow grape price trends and for information and advice relevant to the business of running a vineyard. You can browse articles to the left, via the pull-down archive menu or by searching for specific article tags.