In my blog post The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession, I included a probability distribution of when I think the next recession is coming: ■There is a 95% chance that we'll see a recession within the next 3 years; ■25% chance in 2019; ■40% chance in 2020; ■30% chance in 2021; ■5% chance in 2022 or later. ■My probability distribution could be shattered by sudden shifts from a wide range of disruptions from either natural or policy disasters. I
Well, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is at least a little bit less true than you originally thought. After asking for feedback in my last blog post, I got some. I was wondering why government data showed that, corrected for inflation, labor rates in El Dorado looked to be steady - or maybe even falling - while total grape sales rose. I also pondered the meaning of fewer reported businesses employing vineyard workers. The mystery is not completely solved, bu
On March 20th, I’ll be speaking to the El Dorado Wine Grape Growers’ Association. They’re a great group – they always have a lot of great questions and they're great at sharing their knowledge with each other and me. They also put me up in the Cary House, a nice, old-timey hotel in downtown Placerville, which might be the most underrated town in California. And it's a real place, unlike El Dorado's mythical namesake. Map to a very different El Dorado: My presentation is go
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