Lately, there has been a lot of talk about how we’re due to see a downturn in the wine market. As those of you who have gotten a glass of wine with me anytime since 2012 probably know, I’ve been predicting a peak in wine grape prices in 2018. Over the past 6 years, I’ve refined and softened that prediction. We have not seen over-planting on the same scale as we have in past grape market cycles. In 2017, I changed my tune a bit to state that (a) the peak will occur in 2018/
I am continually creating forecasts for clients: land prices, expenses, acreage numbers, labor rates, revenue and, especially, grape prices. But those forecasts can be narrowly focused. For instance, a client may want a forecast for the 80th percentile price for Pinot Noir in Sonoma County. That means I spend a great deal of time looking at specific segments of the West Coast wine grape market. As I have discussed before, we humans have a huge design flaw: our tendency to
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