The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession
Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett
Expert Judgment vs. Statistical Forecasting: Lake County Sauvignon Blanc Update
In August, I had predicted a price of $1300 per ton for Lake County Sauvignon Blanc for 2016. Single-year forecasts are the riskiest forecasts I make. The reason for this is that it typically pits purely quantitative methods against expert knowledge. The case of 2016 Lake County Sauvignon Blanc is a great case in point. For this blog, I put out purely statistical, single-year forecasts. That is, I use only historical data to forecast a price. Someone out in the field, wi
Price per Ton vs. Tons per Acre in Sonoma County
As part of my push to release graphs I have made to the industry for their use, I am posting this graph that shows for five top varietals, what the average price per ton was in District 3, the average tons per acre and the total revenue per acre. District 3 is Sonomarin, which is 99.8% Sonoma County and about 0.2% Marin County. Hope someone finds this useful or at least interesting. Use the chart as much as you'd like, however you'd like, but please leave in the attributio
