Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett
I've got more charts for you! This one is an historical comparison of Cab Franc to Cab Sauv prices. Cab Franc is in the foreground in black, Cab Sauv in the background in grey-green or whatever that color is. Cab Sauv led for a while, until 2007, when they seem to be trading off. The importan thing to notice here, in my mind, is that Cab Franc offers steady, similar financial benefits to Cab Sauv, making it an easy way to diversify. Unfortunately, it is also a relatively
In the last post, we looked at the changing dynamics of modelling county-wide averages for Napa cab prices by year. My suggested method for dealing with the uncertain and changing nature of predicting cab prices was to use a combination of scenario and sensitivity analysis. I went ahead and did this myself and the exercise has yielded new insight into Napa cab price modeling that I would like to share here. Before we delve into that, though, I would like my readers to unde
Here is the previous post in a normal in-blog setting (some issues with graphics due to my host having some troubles with multimedia posts.) I was recently talking with a colleague about where grape prices are going and he expressed his belief that some winegrapes’ prices are no longer subject to the 14 year cycle (from crest to crest) that has historically determined grape prices. I hear this a great deal in various forms, but I also hear from people who have been in this i
So, my website host is having technical difficulties with blogs that contain multiple images. So, I've had to build out a new page for this blog. Just click here to read it. #grapecycle #cab #cabernetsauvignon #chardonnay #grapepriceprojections #napa #napacounty #sonomacounty
Cabernet Sauvignon from Napa is the market leader in grape prices and that is not going to change anytime soon. In fact, it will not surprise many of my readers to hear that prices are almost certainly going up. But by how much? My Projections I use my own proprietary methods to project prices. I have two methods: one is used for long-term projections and attempts to predict cyclical effects. It is meant for long-term planning and must be adjusted annually, since the data t
Stay tuned to VFA's blog to follow grape price trends and for information and advice relevant to the business of running a vineyard. You can browse articles to the left, via the pull-down archive menu or by searching for specific article tags.