The Napa Paradox - Cabernet vs. Diversification by the Numbers
In May I presented at the Vineyard Economics Seminar. One topic I focused on was the paradox of the continuing concentration on Cabernet Sauvignon in Napa. The graph below shows the total percentage of Napa acreage that is Cabernet Sauvignon in purple. Over the past twenty years, Cabernet Sauvignon went from making up 30% or so of all Napa plantings to 42%. That concentration continues to grow slowly, although it is accelerating. In the graph below, we can see that total
Napa Merlot Prices for 2014
Today’s grape price projection is Napa Merlot. To me, it’s a grape that is playing tug-of-war with itself, in a statistical sense. On the one hand, it works as a blending grape for Napa Cabernet and Meritage. On the other hand, it works as a varietally-bottled wine. On the one hand, it is a Napa grape and therefore the market is strong. On the other hand, an off-hand, drunken comment from a fictional character played by Paul Giamatti has destroyed the market for Merlot.
The Verdict is In: Napa Cab Prices Are No Longer Cyclical, So What Now?
In the last post, we looked at the changing dynamics of modelling county-wide averages for Napa cab prices by year. My suggested method for dealing with the uncertain and changing nature of predicting cab prices was to use a combination of scenario and sensitivity analysis. I went ahead and did this myself and the exercise has yielded new insight into Napa cab price modeling that I would like to share here. Before we delve into that, though, I would like my readers to unde
Breaking the Cycle: Projecting Grape Prices into an Ambiguous Future
So, my website host is having technical difficulties with blogs that contain multiple images. So, I've had to build out a new page for this blog. Just click here to read it. #grapecycle #cab #cabernetsauvignon #chardonnay #grapepriceprojections #napa #napacounty #sonomacounty
Where are Napa Cabernet prices going?
Cabernet Sauvignon from Napa is the market leader in grape prices and that is not going to change anytime soon. In fact, it will not surprise many of my readers to hear that prices are almost certainly going up. But by how much? My Projections I use my own proprietary methods to project prices. I have two methods: one is used for long-term projections and attempts to predict cyclical effects. It is meant for long-term planning and must be adjusted annually, since the data t
