In my blog post The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession, I included a probability distribution of when I think the next recession is coming: ■There is a 95% chance that we'll see a recession within the next 3 years; ■25% chance in 2019; ■40% chance in 2020; ■30% chance in 2021; ■5% chance in 2022 or later. ■My probability distribution could be shattered by sudden shifts from a wide range of disruptions from either natural or policy disasters. I
This month’s issue of Wine Business Monthly has a lot of useful information in it. A lot of talk of headwinds up ahead for the wine industry, along with some justifiable “yes, but stay calm”-type of advice. For regular readers of this blog, you know that I've been worried for a long time that 2019 would signal a cyclical downturn for grape growers and that, more recently, I've come to believe we're headed into a recession and an industry-wide slump. Which is why I was also
Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett
Stay tuned to VFA's blog to follow grape price trends and for information and advice relevant to the business of running a vineyard. You can browse articles to the left, via the pull-down archive menu or by searching for specific article tags.