In my blog post The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession, I included a probability distribution of when I think the next recession is coming: ■There is a 95% chance that we'll see a recession within the next 3 years; ■25% chance in 2019; ■40% chance in 2020; ■30% chance in 2021; ■5% chance in 2022 or later. ■My probability distribution could be shattered by sudden shifts from a wide range of disruptions from either natural or policy disasters. I
Are We Hiring into a Industry-Wide Downturn?
This month’s issue of Wine Business Monthly has a lot of useful information in it. A lot of talk of headwinds up ahead for the wine industry, along with some justifiable “yes, but stay calm”-type of advice. For regular readers of this blog, you know that I've been worried for a long time that 2019 would signal a cyclical downturn for grape growers and that, more recently, I've come to believe we're headed into a recession and an industry-wide slump. Which is why I was also
The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 4: A Survival Guide
Well, I’ve thrown a lot out at you in this series of blog posts. The grape market cycle might be grinding to a halt! A recession is coming
The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession
Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett