Wine Business Consulting, Forecasting and Analysis Services

Work is getting to be really busy. I've realized that, though I really focus on forecasting, this industry has a lot of need for more customized or generalized financial help. And I build really great financials. So, I've been lucky to get to do that for a lot of young, local businesses lately. Plus, there are always AVA valuations rolling in nowadays. And then there's cannabis/hemp/marijuana. A lot of work from there. I mention all of that as an excuse for why I haven

Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett

Lately, there has been a lot of talk about how we’re due to see a downturn in the wine market. As those of you who have gotten a glass of wine with me anytime since 2012 probably know, I’ve been predicting a peak in wine grape prices in 2018. Over the past 6 years, I’ve refined and softened that prediction. We have not seen over-planting on the same scale as we have in past grape market cycles. In 2017, I changed my tune a bit to state that (a) the peak will occur in 2018/

In a previous post, I put up a new Grape Data Tool tutorial video explaining how to use the tool to evaluate Cabernet Sauvignon prices by percentile. The tutorial focused on Mendocino, Lake, Sonoma and Napa Counties. In previous blog posts, I shared some findings on Mendocino County Cabernet Sauvignon and Lake County Cabernet Sauvignon. This post will look at the economics of District 3 (Sonomarin) Cabernet Sauvignon pricing by percentile level. Note: I refer to District 3

In my continuing push to get people to use my free Grape Data Tool, I've made another tutorial video. This one shows how to use the AllPercentile macro to explore percentile pricing. Specifically, it focuses on how the top several percent of Cabernet Sauvignon grapes sold in each Pricing District relate to the average Cabernet Sauvignon price for the region. It also includes a bit of education on how percentile pricing works and how it can relate to grape purchase contract

So, tomorrow is the big day. The preliminary Crush Report drops. So, I rushed to get a test model done that I wanted to share. A ten year forecast for District 3 (Sonomarin) Chardonnay. It is the most thorough model I've ever given away. Follow the link below (left click) to download it. If you have any trouble with it, please let me know. Download Here #Chardonnay #forecasts #forecasting #sonomacounty

I have an article coming out in Wines & Vines, if it’s not already out. In the article, I look into growers turning to bulk wine production. One of the issues I look at it is the comparative volatility in the bulk wine market, versus the grape market. I wanted to make sure that anyone who is interested can see how I compared volatility between the two product types. As in the article, let’s use Sonoma County Chardonnay as an example. First, take a look at the data below,

As part of my push to release graphs I have made to the industry for their use, I am posting this graph that shows for five top varietals, what the average price per ton was in District 3, the average tons per acre and the total revenue per acre. District 3 is Sonomarin, which is 99.8% Sonoma County and about 0.2% Marin County. Hope someone finds this useful or at least interesting. Use the chart as much as you'd like, however you'd like, but please leave in the attributio

District 3 Chardonnay Update For someone in Sonoma County and/or the wine industry, Sonoma County means Dry Creek Zinfandel, Alexander Valley Cab and great Pinot Noir and Chardonnay from the Russian River Valley and the Sonoma Coast. But to most of the country, Sonoma County means Chardonnay. Chardonnay accounts for three-quarters of the county’s white winegrapes and one-third of all the county's winegrapes. In 2013, District 3 (Sonomarin) Chardonnay sold for an average of

Sonoma County Zinfandel Update In 2013, District 3 Zinfandel sold for an average of $2498.88 per ton. In case you’re not familiar with the USDA’s pricing districts, District 3 consists of Sonoma and Marin Counties. I had predicted that average price per ton would rise to $2586.23 in 2014. In fact, it did rise, but only to $2543.78 – about $46 or 1.8%, outpacing an inflation rate of 0.8%, according to Department of Labor data. Yields, on the other hand, fell by 22%. Avera