NPR Article on Sideways
Kristen Hartke quoted me a bunch for a good article about the "Sideways Effect" for NPR's The Salt: http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/07/05/535038513/the-sideways-effect-how-a-wine-obsessed-film-reshaped-the-industry. One note: I mis-spoke to the author. She quoted me as stating that total wine production in California has only increased by 7-8% in California, but 170% for Pinot Noir. Those numbers are for total wine GRAPE production. #Sideways #wine #Winebiz
The Sideways Effect is Ending. Will Merlot Prices Rise?
This, however, is the strongest quantitative evidence, short of surveys or studies of individual buyer behavior, that I can think of indicat
Is the Vox Video True? Is Expensive Wine for Suckers?
So, as I’m sure happens to many of my readers, anytime someone sees a news article about wine, I’m asked, “Is it true?” Typically, this is pretty easy to answer. The recent video from Vox, however, is so packed with claims, that it takes more than just a Facebook reply to answer. So, I figured, if I’m going to answer it, I may as well write a blog about it. I’m pretty slammed with clients needs right now, so it will be a bit before I put together a more heavy-hitting post
Cognitive Biases in the Wine Industry, Part 3
This is the third article in a series that focuses, basically, on how our brains are wired in a way that misleads us to make poor business decisions. The first two articles can be found here and here. Though we humans have learned to gather and utilize facts, data, evidence and logic, we do so poorly for innate, biological reasons. Those of us in the wine industry are not exempted from this. If you are regular reader, you know that I am passionate about using facts, data,
Sideways 10 Years On: The Cost to Merlot Farmers Has Been More than $400M
In the last post, I shared a one-year projection for Napa Merlot prices. The model only worked when a variable was created to measure the effect of the movie Sideways on the price of Merlot. Years ago, a study was done to measure the effect that the movie had on retail Merlot prices. I thought I would take a crack at determining how much money that movie has cost Merlot farmers. This is not meant to be any sort of definitive study of the issue. I have no interns and this
Napa Merlot Prices for 2014
Today’s grape price projection is Napa Merlot. To me, it’s a grape that is playing tug-of-war with itself, in a statistical sense. On the one hand, it works as a blending grape for Napa Cabernet and Meritage. On the other hand, it works as a varietally-bottled wine. On the one hand, it is a Napa grape and therefore the market is strong. On the other hand, an off-hand, drunken comment from a fictional character played by Paul Giamatti has destroyed the market for Merlot.