
The Verdict is In: Napa Cab Prices Are No Longer Cyclical, So What Now?
In the last post, we looked at the changing dynamics of modelling county-wide averages for Napa cab prices by year. My suggested method for dealing with the uncertain and changing nature of predicting cab prices was to use a combination of scenario and sensitivity analysis. I went ahead and did this myself and the exercise has yielded new insight into Napa cab price modeling that I would like to share here. Before we delve into that, though, I would like my readers to unde

Breaking the Cycle: Projecting Grape Price into a Saturated and Ambiguous Future
Here is the previous post in a normal in-blog setting (some issues with graphics due to my host having some troubles with multimedia posts.) I was recently talking with a colleague about where grape prices are going and he expressed his belief that some winegrapes’ prices are no longer subject to the 14 year cycle (from crest to crest) that has historically determined grape prices. I hear this a great deal in various forms, but I also hear from people who have been in this i
Breaking the Cycle: Projecting Grape Prices into an Ambiguous Future
So, my website host is having technical difficulties with blogs that contain multiple images. So, I've had to build out a new page for this blog. Just click here to read it. #grapecycle #cab #cabernetsauvignon #chardonnay #grapepriceprojections #napa #napacounty #sonomacounty
Where are Napa Cabernet prices going?
Cabernet Sauvignon from Napa is the market leader in grape prices and that is not going to change anytime soon. In fact, it will not surprise many of my readers to hear that prices are almost certainly going up. But by how much? My Projections I use my own proprietary methods to project prices. I have two methods: one is used for long-term projections and attempts to predict cyclical effects. It is meant for long-term planning and must be adjusted annually, since the data t