El Dorado Wine Grape Price Forecast
Yesterday, I presented to the El Dorado Wine Grape Growers Association. I spoke about where we are in the wine market cycle. I also reviewed my forecast from last year and updated it for next year. Last year, I shared with the El Dorado growers that I predicted a 2018 Wine Grape Survey weighted average price for all varieties of $1,673. The actual price was $1,672. That's an error of $1 or 0.06%. My second best forecast ever and my best public forecast ever (though my W
Grading My 2014 Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon Acreage Forecast
In 2015, I presented at the Vineyard Economics Seminar. At that point, we only had acreage data through 2014. The presentation was made publicly available. At that time, I predicted that, for the next several years, Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon acreage would increase by 1.25% annualized (per USDA-NASS Crush Report numbers). I decided to check in on that prediction this year. In 2014, acreage was 19,665. A 1.25% compounded annual growth rate would mean 20,667 acres in 2
How Should You Judge Wine Grape Price Forecasts?
So, I have posted many forecasts and scored many forecasts on this blog. But it may be difficult for you to determine if my forecasts are good. For one, humans are bad at judging forecasts, because we rarely keep records. For instance, you may hear someone claim that he or his friend is really successful at playing scratch-off tickets. With the exception of those few people who luck into a major jackpot, it is a mathematical near-impossibility that a regular scratch-off pl
Sonoma County Chardonnay Prices
Work is getting to be really busy. I've realized that, though I really focus on forecasting, this industry has a lot of need for more customized or generalized financial help. And I build really great financials. So, I've been lucky to get to do that for a lot of young, local businesses lately. Plus, there are always AVA valuations rolling in nowadays. And then there's cannabis/hemp/marijuana. A lot of work from there. I mention all of that as an excuse for why I haven
The Canary in the Coal Mine: Lake County Wine Grape Prices Fall by 9%
Update (4:43p, 4/18/19): The Lake County Winegrowers Association e-mailed me with some more information: "Thanks to a near-perfect growing season in 2018, the crop was big everywhere in California, including in Lake County. 2018 prices varied slightly in comparison to the previous years but considering the extent of the fire, the prices recorded in the grape crush report reflect both a commitment to quality from the growers and a good collaboration between growers and winery
Predicting Washington Wine Grape Prices
I've been looking for new regions to sell my services in. I love Sonoma and Napa, but I enjoy getting clients from other regions. Last year, I made public forecasts for Washington, Oregon and Lake County grape prices. With the Crush Report released, I'm starting to grade them. I have arbitrarily started off with Washington (it's the leftmost tab in my tracking spreadsheet.) Ironically, Washington doesn't report its prices in the Crush Report (they have their own report).
Lake County Wine Grape Price for 2018
So, this post may be coming a bit late to be of much help, but maybe it will be useful to someone. This stems from some casual research I was doing. I've been hoping for a contract to forecast Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon. It's such a huge question going forward, as to what extent Napa Cab will follow a steady, upward trajectory and to what extent it is still vulnerable to cyclical effects and macroeconomic headwinds. To really look at an issue like that would take, in m
Four-Year Forecast of Oregon Wine Grape Prices
I am continually creating forecasts for clients: land prices, expenses, acreage numbers, labor rates, revenue and, especially, grape prices. But those forecasts can be narrowly focused. For instance, a client may want a forecast for the 80th percentile price for Pinot Noir in Sonoma County. That means I spend a great deal of time looking at specific segments of the West Coast wine grape market. As I have discussed before, we humans have a huge design flaw: our tendency to
Quality, Ten-Year Forecast for District 3 Chardonnay Prices
So, tomorrow is the big day. The preliminary Crush Report drops. So, I rushed to get a test model done that I wanted to share. A ten year forecast for District 3 (Sonomarin) Chardonnay. It is the most thorough model I've ever given away. Follow the link below (left click) to download it. If you have any trouble with it, please let me know. Download Here #Chardonnay #forecasts #forecasting #sonomacounty
Price Forecast for El Dorado Wine Grapes for 2017 Harvest
Recently, I've had the chance to focus a bit on the El Dorado AVA. I did work for a client there and also put together a presentation for the El Dorado Wine Growers Association. Click here to get the report I put together for the growers. In the process, I noticed that the reported El Dorado grape prices look pretty easy to forecast. In fact, the report and presentation included a regression that could be used to forecast prices for 2016 (the El Dorado Wine Grape Survey ha
