Grape Data Tool Updated
Hi all, Yup, haven't updated this site for a very long time. With all the angst in the vineyard world, work has been busy. Which is also why my Grape Data Tool update has been delayed. But I finished up today and sent it out to my mailing list. If you haven't used it before, it distills every Acreage and Crush Report since 1991 into a single Excel workbook with a quick and easy interface. I have also added a variety of tools to make it easy to pull out a great deal of der
Will the USDA Fix Grape Pricing District 5?
USDA Pricing District 5 has the same borders as Solano County. The problem is that the region is really two different markets: the west and the east. As the borders are set now, the pricing indications from the Crush Report are difficult for growers to make much use of. I, along with Allied Grape Growers, recently weighed in on this debate and it looks like our efforts are getting some traction: https://www.northbaybusinessjournal.com/industrynews/wineindustry/10064935-181
An Example of Different Types of Grape Price Escalators
Long-term grape contracts require a mechanism to dictate price throughout the term of the contract. These mechanisms can make an enormous difference in the profitability of the contract for both sides. The chart below is an illustrative case study. It assumes a three-year contract was signed for District 11 (Lodi) Zinfandel that was priced at $900 in 2015. Six types of escalators/indexes are examined: Inflation: Some contracts index to inflation, which I typically define a
Which Average to Use? The Cheapest Trick in Grape Price Negotiations.
I recently had the great honor of presenting to the California Association of Wine Growers at their annual summer seminar. My topic was a somewhat wide ranging discussion of how grape growers could use the Crush Report and Acreage Report to better their business decisions, negotiations and strategy. One topic I presented was the difference between median prices and mean/average prices. Grape buyers and sellers sometimes like to argue over whether they should index or price
Sonoma County Chardonnay Prices
Work is getting to be really busy. I've realized that, though I really focus on forecasting, this industry has a lot of need for more customized or generalized financial help. And I build really great financials. So, I've been lucky to get to do that for a lot of young, local businesses lately. Plus, there are always AVA valuations rolling in nowadays. And then there's cannabis/hemp/marijuana. A lot of work from there. I mention all of that as an excuse for why I haven
The Crush Report is Here! Acreage Report Due Friday
So, the Crush Report dropped on April 10th, as expected in my last update on the matter. Usually I'm on top of that, as soon as it happens. Reading through it; bothering the nice folks at USDA-NASS about any suspected errors or oddities. In fact, I plan my whole work calendar around it. This year, though, the government shutdown delayed release to a period of time that I was abroad. So, now I'm still in the middle of client projects. So, I'm cutting out my typical bloggi
Interactive Chart of the Last 27 Years of District 3 Pinot Noir Prices, by Percentile
This creates an easy way to see how District 3 Pinot Noir prices have evolved, by percentile, over time, in both nominal and inflation-adjusted dollars. Below is a screenshot, but the power in the file is that you can scroll through all the years from 1991-2017, using a simple scroll bar. Go to the Grape Data Tutorial page to download this and similar charts. Feel free to use and disseminate it, but please leave my contact info on it. #grapeprices #grapedatatool #percentile
Interactive Chart of the Last 27 Years of Napa Cabernet Prices by Percentile
So, sometimes I'm deep into a client project and I hit a wall. My work quality drops, my productivity falls. In some cases, I just do some jumping jacks or go into the house to change that light bulb that went out a couple days ago - and then get back to work. But sometimes I feel the need to keep my mind focused on the same type of work - I just need a break from the subject matter at hand. So I made a pretty cool interactive chart that allows you to track the distributio
Lake County Wine Grape Price for 2018
So, this post may be coming a bit late to be of much help, but maybe it will be useful to someone. This stems from some casual research I was doing. I've been hoping for a contract to forecast Napa County Cabernet Sauvignon. It's such a huge question going forward, as to what extent Napa Cab will follow a steady, upward trajectory and to what extent it is still vulnerable to cyclical effects and macroeconomic headwinds. To really look at an issue like that would take, in m
The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession
Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett
