So, the Crush Report dropped on April 10th, as expected in my last update on the matter. Usually I'm on top of that, as soon as it happens. Reading through it; bothering the nice folks at USDA-NASS about any suspected errors or oddities. In fact, I plan my whole work calendar around it. This year, though, the government shutdown delayed release to a period of time that I was abroad. So, now I'm still in the middle of client projects. So, I'm cutting out my typical bloggi
For a while, I think some of the folks at USDA-NASS's Pacific Region office must have suspected they had the same guy calling in every year with questions about things like, whether the Statewide average Albarinho price was accurate or a typo. Eventually, I just made an appointment to meet with them, introduce myself and discuss methodology. I can tell you, they are a diligent and thoughtful team who do great work. The shutdown endangered our ability to get the timely price
So, the Preliminary Crush Report came out today and I’ve been comparing it to my predictions. Overall, I’ve been really on point for work done for clients, with most predictions running between 0.5% to 2.5% off-target. At some point, I will put up a score sheet of my public predictions on this blog. Spoiler alert: They’re pretty good, but there are two forecasts that were not. And one was off by a lot. Of course, I’ve known that the public ones, being a bit less research
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