The Three Horsemen of the Grapepocalypse, Part 2: The Coming Recession
Three weeks ago, I posted my first installment of this series about the coming Grapepocalypse, which discussed the effects of the changing grape market cycle. I promised some more doom and gloom, but it took me a bit to get this article out. Unfortunately, both of my young children fell ill and in the 4th incident in 15 months of PG&E equipment failure on my homestead, my computer was fried, among other damage done. So, I apologize for the delay. Of course, there is no bett
Regional Shares of California's Wine Grape Market by Yields, Acreage and Grape Sales Revenue
My last blog post included a new tutorial video showing how to use the Grape Data Tool to create charts depicting the what share of the wine grape market different regions of California have, by yields, acreage and grape sales revenue. Here are the charts below, for anyone who wants it. Note that the region names also include a listing of what USDA-NASS grape pricing districts were included in each region. #winegrapes #wine #winebiz #vineyards #yields #acreage #grapedatatoo
Maybe Marijuana Legalization is a Real Threat to Wine Sales
I and Tom Wark, at fermentationwineblog.com have had an ongoing debate over whether or not marijuana legalization is a threat to wine sales. For a long time, my belief was that marijuana legalization will not lead to a detectable drop in wine sales, (see here, here, here and here.) Then, as I saw more and better quality evidence, I began to equivocate more, (see here and here.) Basically, I noted that the preponderance of evidence indicated that cannabis legalization likely
New Trade Environment Bad for US Wine Exporters
When it comes to policy changes emanating from Washington, the domestic wine industry's main worry is rightfully the constriction of our labor supply. In addition to renewed efforts to deport unauthorized immigrants and raid employers in our state, there has also been a push to limit the number of H-2A visas available to our farmers. But, if you're looking for more bad news, there's also trade policy. Today is a big day. For one, Mr. Trump is planning on instituting tariff
First Evidence We Should Worry About Marijuana Legalization
A recent study looked at how medical marijuana legalization has influenced alcohol consumption. The study is solid, with falsification and robustness check and consideration of covariants and confounders. According to the researchers, medical marijuana legalization reduces consumption by 15%. This is the first real evidence I have seen that marijuana is a threat to wine. At this point I would characterize the situation as 'a preponderance of evidence indicating that marij
Recommended Prices for El Dorado Wine Grapes - 2017
I was recently asked by the El Dorado Wine Grape Growers Association to produce recommended prices. Not exactly forecasts, more of an assessment of fair prices, based on long-term trends and cost inflation. Below is a basic chart, an excerpt from the report. I would recommend that you read the report, which is linked to below, after the chart and the EDWGGA's press release. I also included download links to the original calculations and a chart, produced from my Grape Dat
Americans are NOT Abandoning Wine!
So, saw this post from the Wine Curmudgeon the other day: Are Americans turning away from wine? In the post, the Wine Curmudgeon cites a Gallup poll indicating that only 30% of Americans indicate that their preferred alcoholic beverage is wine, the lowest number in 14 years. The Curmudgeon then goes on to let us know that this is because of premiumization and craft beer, along with the increase in the proportion of Americans who don't drink. Is the Curmudgeon right? Maybe
More People Are Using Cannabis - Are Fewer People Drinking?
I've noticed that our industry loves to panic about outside forces coming to harm us. The latest panic is that marijuana legalization is going to reduce wine consumption. My line has been that I'm not worried at this point. Of course, there will be some effect, but at this point I see no reason to believe that that effect will be significant or even detectable. A million things can reduce wine consumption: more amusement parks, zoning law changes, etc., etc. All of those
Article in the Press Democrat
Bill Swindell quoted me in his article about cannabis and wine in the Press Democrat. It's a good article about a subject that's easy to write a bad article about: https://www.wix.com/my-account/sites/0a88a463-ee1b-4030-8f0b-15f6b0d59cf5 #cannabis #wine
Maybe Napa Cabernet Sauvignon Prices Aren't That High!
My two favorite people from Uppsala are both named David. The first is David the Gnome and the second is David Morrison at The Wine Gourd blog. I’ll refrain from extolling the virtues of David the Gnome for now and focus on David Morrison. Frankly, he does some of the best quantitative analysis of any wine blogger out there. If you would like to understand the economics of the wine industry, his blog is a must-read. His latest post, “Napa cabernet grapes are greatly over-